AL Central: Cleveland a target for jokesters
Baseball Betting Lines
05/28/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When your team has the second-worst record in the American
League and boasts the lowest attendance totals in all of baseball, you're
bound to be the butt of a few jokes.
That seems be the case for the Cleveland Indians, who are just 8-15 in the
month of May and are approaching new levels of futility.
According to a recent report (with pictures) on the Dan LeBatard Show, Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen had some fun with a Cleveland fan prior to
Tuesday's game. The fan had asked Guillen to sign a ball. Guillen obliged,
sort of.
On the one side of the ball, he signed, "Bye Bye Lebron!! LOL." And on the
other side, "When are you going to win anything in sports? Please."
For the record, Guillen later said he had signed the ball for a friend of his.
Still, when it comes to a fan base as tortured as Cleveland's, Guillen would
probably be wise to tap into his sensitivity training from a few years ago. In
any case, you at least have to give the guy credit for always knowing how to
stir the pot.
All jokes aside, Indians manager Manny Acta is turning over every stone to try
and keep his team competitive amidst some major roster turnover. Among those
efforts is the 'positive at-bats' channel, which is available to the hitters
every day on the in-house monitor in the Progressive Field clubhouse.
Essentially, the channel features that day's opposing starting pitcher. But
rather than always showing the pitcher's last outing, as most clubs do, the
'positive at-bats' channel shows the last time he got shelled.
"It's positive reinforcement," hitting coach Jon Nunnally said. "It reminds
them that they can get the pitch they want to get and have success."
Meanwhile, the front office is also doing its part to accelerate the
rebuilding process. However, as general manager Mark Shapiro rolls up his
sleeves and immerses himself in that process, he can't help but be reminded of
the many failures from the past decade.
As a recent column in The Cleveland Plain Dealer pointed out, of the 28
players the team has drafted in the first and second rounds between 2000-06,
Trevor Crowe is the only position player currently in the majors. Jeremy
Guthrie (2002), Brian Tallet (2000) and David Huff (2006) represent the only
pitchers in the big leagues, although that trio hasn't exactly drawn rave
reviews.
But the tide appears to be turning with regard to some of the Tribe's high-
profile prospects.
Mitch Talbot, a 2002 second-round pick by the Houston Astros, leads all big
league rookies with six wins, and he trails only Tampa Bay's David Price
(seven) among all American League hurlers.
Shortstop Jason Donald, a third-round pick by the Philadelphia Phillies who
was acquired in the Cliff Lee deal, has started to come along since being
called up May 18. Donald is 6-for-15 over the last five games, and on Tuesday
he registered his first big league home run off White Sox' starter Jake Peavy.
Donald has also turned heads with his smooth glove and high intensity.
Meanwhile, down in Triple-A Columbus, top prospect Carlos Santana is hitting
.313 and just belted his 10th home run of the season on Wednesday. The catcher
leads the International League in on-base percentage (.447) and walks (35),
ranks third in slugging percentage (.573) and OPS (1.020), and is tied for
third in homers and fourth in RBI (40).
Of course, Santana was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a nondrafted free
agent in 2004. With this year's draft quickly approaching on June 7, the
Indians have the fifth pick. Obviously, they would love to strike gold in the
later rounds or even find another nondraftee gem like Santana. But considering
the way things have gone for the organization lately, it's almost imperative
the team finds a player with that No. 5 pick.
DETROIT HOLDING LEADS
When leading in the seventh inning or later, the Detroit Tigers (25-21) have
lost only two games this season, which is tied for the third-best mark in the
American League. Now, consider that Detroit's starters are last in the league
with 18 quality starts out of 46 games, and the picture becomes clearer as to
why the Tigers remain in second place in the division, trailing Minnesota by 1
1/2 games.
Yes, the bullpen deserves most of the early-season kudos. In 11 of the Tigers'
25 wins, the bullpen hasn't allowed a run and has pitched at least three
innings, according to the Detroit Free Press. But how long can they keep it
up?
If the starters continue to rank last in the league in ERA (5.01) and innings
pitched (257), probably not very long, one would figure. On three occasions
this season, the Tigers have rallied to win after trailing by five runs in the
sixth inning or later. While that may make for good TV, it's no way to go
through a 162-game season. Sooner or later, the starters are going to have to
hold up their end of the deal in Detroit.
CAUSE FOR CONCERN IN CHI-TOWN?
When it comes to the Chicago White Sox' schedule, there are no easy matchups.
Entering this weekend's four-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays, owners of
the best record in all of baseball, Chicago was 14-14 against teams with
records of .500 or better, but 6-12 against teams with losing records.
"I guess it's a matter of just gearing up for the big games," reliever Scott
Linebrink told the Chicago Tribune. "It's a lesson to us that we need to take
the same intensity all the time. There are no pushovers in the league. We've
got to play good ball against everybody.
"(Young teams) sometimes are the most dangerous. They've got nothing to lose.
They're not playing for anything, and you can tell they're playing relaxed."
In other team news, starting pitcher Jake Peavy clarified some comments he
made following Tuesday's start, in which he gave up six earned runs in six
innings and was charged with his fourth loss of the year. Multiple reports
described Peavy as having arm fatigue after the game.
"I just said I didn't have good stuff and didn't feel that great," he told the
team's Web site. "That's part of being a pitcher. You won't make 33 or 34
starts and feel good and have A-plus stuff. Stuff-wise, the ball wasn't crisp
out of my hand. That's part of it. There are times where your arm doesn't
respond the way you hope it would. The bottom line is I have to find ways to
win and keep the team in the game."
Peavy added that he is sometimes honest to a fault, and he didn't mean for his
comments to be misconstrued as having a tired arm. For what it's worth, the
Chicago Tribune reported that Peavy would likely skip his bullpen session this
week, thus giving
his arm more rest leading up to Sunday's scheduled start against the Rays.
BLACKBURN, KUBEL SPARKING TWINS
The Minnesota Twins (27-20) will be glad they won't have to face the AL East
again for a while, considering they went 5-10 this month against that
division. Still, Minnesota remains in first place in the AL Central despite
dropping three of four to the New York Yankees this week.
Two players who helped the Twins avoid a sweep against the Yankees, and who
have also keyed the team's early-season success, are Jason Kubel and Nick
Blackburn. Blackburn picked up the win in Thursday's 8-2 triumph, as he
allowed just two runs in seven innings and did not issue a single walk. The
win was Blackburn's fifth in as many outings during the month of May. Just a
couple of weeks ago, he stifled the Yankees to three runs over seven innings
for a 6-3 win in New York.
Ultimately, Kubel was the hero of that game in Yankee Stadium, as he blasted
an eighth-inning grand slam off closer Mariano Rivera to seal the win. This
time around, Kubel knocked two homers, collected three hits in all, and drove
in five of the team's eight runs.
Kubel hasn't gotten off to a picture-perfect start, batting .233 with five
homers as he's adjusted to sharing DH duties with Jim Thome. But he has driven
in 27 runs, and Yankees manager Joe Girardi pointed to Kubel's performance
last year to make the point that he certainly wasn't being overlooked in the
series. Last season, Kubel set career-highs by hitting .300 with 28 homers and
103 RBI. Kubel said he is starting to get into a better groove offensively of
late.
"I felt great all day," Kubel said following Thursday's victory. "That's
something I haven't been doing too much lately, is just seeing the ball.
Instead of swinging at everything, I was able to get some pitches to hit and
put some good swings on them."
BUTLER CARRYING KANSAS CITY'S OFFENSE
By now, most baseball fans are aware that Justin Morneau is leading the majors
in batting average (.377). Raise your hand if you know who is in second place.
That would be Royals first baseman Billy Butler, who would likely be well on
his way to breakout stardom if he weren't playing in Kansas City. Butler has
hit safely in 14 of his last 16 games and is hitting at a .348 clip on the
season. Last year was his coming out party, as he hit .301 with 21 homers and
93 RBI.
"I don't know if it's because I play in Kansas City or something that they
don't take any notice, but hopefully we start winning some more ballgames and
people take notice of how good we all can hit," Butler told the team's Web
site.
Manager Ned Yost credits Butler's approach, day-in and day-out, and his knack
for always studying the game.
"If you ask me if I'd finish second in the league in hitting or get in the
playoffs, you know which one I'd choose," Butler said.
Kansas City (20-28) has won two straight -- over Texas and Boston -- and is
now just a half-game behind Chicago for third place in the division.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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