Big Guns in the Big Sky
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/20/2010 -
Ogden, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big Sky Conference will not be short on
offensive firepower this coming season. From the top down, the conference is
laden with talented, proven, and productive offensive threats.
Preseason favorite Montana boasts two Walter Payton Award watch lists members.
Running back Chase Reynolds was a finalist in 2009, finishing 13th in the
voting. A senior, Reynolds has rushed for 3,075 yards and 44 touchdowns over
the last two seasons.
Joining Reynolds on the Payton watch list is senior quarterback Andrew Selle.
Selle manned an offense which finished first in the Big Sky in scoring last
season. He threw for 3,043 yards, 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions,
while leading the conference in passing efficiency.
Despite those gaudy numbers, first year head coach Robin Pflugrad describes
himself as "cautiously optimistic" about his team's prospects this season. To
Pflugrad, roster turnover is the main cause for concern. Most notably, the
Grizzlies are without First Team All-American wide receiver Marc Mariani, who
recently took his talents to the NFL's Tennessee Titans. Also gone are key
offensive line components Levi Horn and Chris Dyke. In speaking of his team's
inexperience, Pflugrad says, "We have some guys who haven't been in the war
together."
Still, as the battle for the Big Sky title nears commencement, Montana appears
poised to prevail. The going may get tough however, as many teams in the
conference have weapons to burn.
Montana first runs into a stalwart Big Sky gun when they visit Eastern
Washington on September 18th. Waiting on EWU's new red turf will be the
Eagles' own Payton watch member, Taiwan Jones.
Says Pflugrad of Jones, "When he turns the corner we don't have anyone that can
catch him." The numbers bear this out. In 2009, Jones averaged 7.5 yards per
carry and scored 15 touchdowns. Originally a cornerback, Jones also proved to
be a dual threat for Eastern Washington, catching 40 passes for 561 yards.
Perhaps the biggest threat facing any Big Sky defense this year is Northern
Arizona senior quarterback Michael Herrick. Herrick, a Payton nominee, has
also been named first-team preseason all-conference. Herrick had a sensational
year in 2009, completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,356 yards and 22
touchdowns. Sure to add quake to defensive coordinators' kneecaps is the word
out of Flagstaff that Herrick appears to have improved his accuracy leading
into the 2010 season.
Not to be outdone, senior Weber State quarterback Cameron Higgins will look to
create some fireworks of his own. Higgins has been a candidate for the Walter
Payton Award each of the past two seasons. He has also guided Weber State to
two consecutive FCS playoff births. Higgins will meet Herrick on November 13,
in Flagstaff. The meeting is sure to be a summit of gunslinging prowess.
In all, it appears there are many gunners aiming for the well-adorned bull's
eye on Montana's back. With the Grizzlies facing some significant question
marks, the battle for the Big Sky could come down to who has the biggest weapon
to hit that target.
2010 Preseason Conference Poll (coaches and media)
1. Montana
2. Eastern Washington
3. Montana State
4. Weber State
5. Northern Arizona
6. Sacramento State
7. Northern Colorado
8. Portland State
9. Idaho State
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Phils option disappointing Kendrick to Triple-A >>
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Cech, 28, underwent scans Tuesday a
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Big 12 Conference betting odds
Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.
Work left to do:
Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.
Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.
Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.
NFL Football Betting Online
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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