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Butler battles Michigan State in Final Four matchup

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

04/03/2010 - Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "Cinderella" is alive and well in this year's NCAA Tournament, as the Butler Bulldogs make their first-ever appearance in the Final Four when they tangle with perennial power Michigan State this Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Butler, which is located in Indianapolis, will be the first team to play in a Final Four in its hometown since UCLA did so back in 1972. The Bulldogs, the No. 5 seed out of the West Region, are riding the nation's longest winning streak at 24 games, last losing at UAB on December 22, 2009. Butler, under the tutelage of third-year coach Brad Stevens, went 18-0 in the Horizon League this season, and won the conference tournament as well. Its 32 wins on the year is both a school and league record. Stevens, who has amassed a record of 88-14 since taking over at Butler, has won the most games in Division I history in his first three seasons.

Butler, which topped the likes of UTEP (77-59), Murray State (54-52), Syracuse (63-59) and Kansas State (63-56) in the tournament thus far, has won 117 games over the past four seasons to set a school and Horizon League record for most wins in a four-year period. The Bulldogs are playing in their fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament and their seventh in the past decade, and they own an all-time tourney record of 12-9.

As for Michigan State, there isn't a more successful team in the country [of late] in terms of Final Four berths, as coach Tom Izzo's club has appeared in six of the last 12 national semifinals. Every four-year player recruited by Izzo has appeared in at least one Final Four before leaving East Lansing.

The Spartans, the No. 5 seed out of the Midwest Region, are 28-8 this season, and their four NCAA Tournament victories over New Mexico State, Maryland, Northern Iowa and Tennessee have come by a combined 13 points -- the lowest total margin of victory of any team to reach the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. MSU, which is 7-0 all-time in NCAA Tournament games played in Indianapolis, has two national championships to its credit (1977 and 2000), with the 2000 title won in this very city.

Michigan State is 13-10 all-time against Butler, and the last meeting between the two schools took place on December 20, 1971 in Indianapolis where the Spartans defeated the Bulldogs, 77-71. This is the first time the two have met in the NCAA Tournament, and the first time two No. 5 seeds have squared off in the Final Four.

Both teams rely on some pretty stingy defensive play to achieve their goals, with Butler allowing an average of 59.8 ppg, and Michigan State 64.1 ppg. BU senior forward Willie Veasley noted the similarities between the two teams. "Both teams are very defensive minded. Our focus is defense, and their focus is defense. When their star player [Kalin Lucas] got injured, they had different guys step up. They regrouped from top to bottom. And I've seen that with us. When Gordon (Hayward) or I had to miss a game this season, we've just had different people step up."

Offensively, the Bulldogs boast four double-digit scorers in the starting lineup led by Hayward and his 15.2 ppg. The leading rebounder for the team as well (8.3 rpg), Hayward is a 47.1 percent shooter who has also done a solid job at the free-throw line (.819). Shelvin Mack (14.1 ppg, 3.1 apg), Matt Howard (12.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Veasley (10.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg) round out the productive quartet, helping Butler put up nearly 70 ppg, hit 45 percent of its total shots, 34.6 percent of its three-point attempts and 74 percent of its free throws.

Hayward spoke about the respect he and the rest of the Bulldogs have for the Spartans. "They are just a great team. For us, I don't know if it's as much about the matchups as much as it is about us knowing their personnel. That's been a huge key for us this whole tournament, knowing personnel. You need to know what the other players are doing so you don't have to guard as much. For us, that's really big. I have to credit our coaches for doing such a great job."

Mack continued Hayward's sentiment. "They remind us alot of ourselves. They have similar size. It's just a good opportunity for two physical teams to go out there and play. I think the biggest thing is to come out and play with our hearts. They are going to play as hard as we are, so we need to be willing to do things like sacrifice our bodies for loose balls and rebounds."

Few gave Michigan State a chance to reach the Final Four once Lucas went down with a leg injury in the second-round game against Maryland. The loss of their leading scorer (14.8 ppg, 4.0 apg) meant other guys would need to step up for the Spartans, who average 72.4 ppg on 47.2 field goal accuracy this season. Raymar Morgan (11.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Durrell Summers (11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), the MVP of the Midwest Regional after averaging 20 ppg, are the only other active double-digit scorers for Izzo's club, although Draymond Green (9.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Chris Allen (8.5 ppg) aren't far off the pace. All will need to bring their "A" game if MSU is to survive this encounter with an extremely dangerous Butler squad.

Izzo knows his guys has their work cut out for them, particularly in trying to break through the tough defensive job typically turned in by the Bulldog backcourt. "I've been really impressed with both guards.", Izzo said. "I've been really impressed with what seems likes an opening here, and all of a sudden, boom, they close it up so quick. They do not extend. They play a lot like -- I'd say it's more of a team that the guards, like when we had Cleaves and Bell, they play a lot of inside out. But they just don't give you many looks and openings."

Izzo continued his praise of Butler. "I love Butler. I love (coach) Brad (Stevens). I think he's done an incredible job. I really like their players and what they stand for."

Izzo noted that the lack of identifiable star power in the Final Four means a more team-oriented approach is necessary to win it all. "I do think when you look at the four teams that are in it, there's a lot of good players, but I wouldn't say anybody is relying on one player as much. For the most part, I think you got four teams that have earned their way here by probably playing good defense. If there's ever a year when maybe there's some of the four better defensive teams in it, I think this would be the year."


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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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