CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction
Football Betting Lines
07/16/2010 -
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with
each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding
themselves in a division trying to find itself.
A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with
pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener
at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second
straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given
the club some rare wiggle room.
Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and
have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success,
proceed with caution.
It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily
suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter
the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the
same one as past editions.
New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one
that comes from behind and wins close games.
With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL
signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he
will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.
For the Argos, it's better than going south.
In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the
27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:
Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice
calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards),
who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.
Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben
continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles
opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against
Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second
meeting of the two teams.
Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should
improve to 3-1.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a
crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter
to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.
Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this
roster gets, the less the regular season matters.
The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in
the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.
That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's
true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den,
having gone winless at BC since 2001.
Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the
top.
Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:
Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly
stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight
catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the
league's stingiest defense.
Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with
sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for
the Lions to wake him up.
Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home
stand
beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the
Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.
Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden
opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a
competitive division.
Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue
Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.
After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice
must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with
the confidence of a playoff team.
Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their
scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play
itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.
For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do
what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg
a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.
Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than
his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have
found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68
percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus
Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.
Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the
cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the
defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year,
has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114
yards.
Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton.
Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets
tougher.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move
further away from the pack.
Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's
reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the
contending team that many predicted in the preseason.
After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad,
Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now
must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.
Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the
Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.
Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has
been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and
speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead
the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers'
offense this week.
Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests
versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win
for Hamilton.
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Big Ten Conference odds
Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
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